Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.019485 0.022093 0.024925 0.028232 0.031988 0.036123 0.041024
2025-06-01 0.015438 0.019033 0.023280 0.028672 0.035346 0.043346 0.053683
2025-06-08 0.012949 0.016895 0.021830 0.028464 0.037169 0.048229 0.063392
2025-06-15 0.011595 0.015848 0.021421 0.029274 0.040088 0.054503 0.075264
2025-06-22 0.009951 0.014154 0.019885 0.028294 0.040363 0.057133 0.082332
2025-06-29 0.008829 0.013013 0.018925 0.027920 0.041322 0.060647 0.090817
2025-07-06 0.007743 0.011785 0.017686 0.026963 0.041261 0.062588 0.097061
2025-07-13 0.007324 0.011491 0.017762 0.027931 0.044112 0.069035 0.110671
2025-07-20 0.006894 0.011126 0.017678 0.028617 0.046549 0.075008 0.124046
2025-07-27 0.006556 0.010866 0.017722 0.029484 0.049320 0.081707 0.139177
2025-08-03 0.006043 0.010268 0.017159 0.029290 0.050295 0.085517 0.149764
2025-08-10 0.005625 0.009788 0.016743 0.029287 0.051568 0.089892 0.161670
2025-08-17 0.005157 0.009189 0.016086 0.028836 0.052060 0.093038 0.171843
2025-08-24 0.004878 0.008896 0.015935 0.029264 0.054161 0.099212 0.188154
2025-08-31 0.004529 0.008446 0.015461 0.029053 0.055053 0.103242 0.200787
2025-09-07 0.004362 0.008312 0.015545 0.029880 0.057951 0.111224 0.221753
2025-09-14 0.003966 0.007712 0.014712 0.028879 0.057233 0.112239 0.229021
2025-09-21 0.003687 0.007312 0.014223 0.028498 0.057684 0.115542 0.241174
2025-09-28 0.003363 0.006797 0.013468 0.027521 0.056843 0.116180 0.247833
2025-10-05 0.003287 0.006772 0.013674 0.028509 0.060116 0.125441 0.273625
2025-10-12 0.003184 0.006681 0.013741 0.029209 0.062838 0.133779 0.298190
2025-10-19 0.003104 0.006634 0.013890 0.030094 0.066030 0.143372 0.326440
2025-10-26 0.002927 0.006364 0.013552 0.029896 0.066827 0.147842 0.343477